******************************************************************************
*** This folder contains the files needed to replicate the analysis contained in "Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence"
***
*** Any questions, email Laron K. Williams, williamslaro@missouri.edu
***
*** The Stata program "btscs.ado" produces some of the temporal dependence variables (Beck, Katz and Tucker 1998)
******************************************************************************


The replication folder contains the following files:

*** Illustrative Examples
* "Long Term Effects--Replication.do"
	--Stata do file containing all of the code to replicate the Stata-based analysis.

* "Long Term Effects--Figures Replication.R"
	--R script file to recreate all of the figures from the manuscript.

* "Negative.dta", "Positive.dta", "NM1.dta", and "NM2.dta"
	--Stata data sets that contain examples of different patterns of duration dependence

* "Negative with Positive NPH.dta"
	--Stata data set that shows an instance of negative duration dependence with positive non-proportional hazards; the "Long Term Effects--Replication.do" file uses this data set to create the long-term effects.

* "LTE Example--Negative.dta"
	--Data set created in Stata; basis for Figures 1a-1d.

* "LTE Example--Negative with Positive NPH.dta"
	--Data set created in Stata; basis for Figures 2a-2c.



*** Monte Carlo experiments
* "Monte Carlo Programs.R"
	--R script file containing all of the subprograms called when running the MC experiments

* "Monte Carlo Experiments.R"
	--R script file containing all of the code to run the MC experiments.

* "Analyze Monte Carlo Experiments.do"
	--Stata do file that uses the data sets from the MC experiments and produces summary statistics (Table 1)

* "Average Hazard Rates--Scenario_1.dta" - "Average Hazard Rates--Scenario_4.dta"
	--Stata data set created in "Long Term Effects--Replication.do" based on the hazard rates from the Monte Carlo experiments

* "Monte Carlo Experiments.smcl"
	--Stata log file containing an analysis of the Monte Carlo experiments.



*** Clare (2010)
* "Clare.dta"
	--Replication data set for Clare (2010)

* "ISPP.dta"
	--File created with "Long Term Effects--Replication.do" containing the in-sample predicted probabilities for Clare (2010)

* "Clare--LTE--Average.dta"
	--File created with "Long Term Effects--Replication.do" containing the average long-term effects calculated based on the observed-values approach (Clare 2010)

* "Clare--LTE--Scenarios.dta"
	--File created with "Long Term Effects--Replication.do" containing the long-term effects for four simulation scenarios (Clare 2010)



*** Appendix
* "LTE Example--Scenarios--Negative.dta", "LTE Example--Scenarios--Positive.dta", "LTE Example--Scenarios--NM1.dta" and "LTE Example--Scenarios--NM2.dta"
	--File created with "Long Term Effects--Replication.do" containing the long-term effects calculated for four scenarios of varying patterns of duration dependence (Figures S.2-S.5)

* "Generate Functional Form Examples.R"
	--R script file to create the data sets for the hazard rates of the four patterns of duration dependence ("NegativeFF.dta", "PositiveFF.dta", "Non-Monotonic1FF.dta", and "Non-Monotonic2FF.dta")

* "LTE Example--Positive.dta", "LTE Example--NM1.dta", and "LTE Example--NM2.dta"
	--Stata data files (created with "Long Term Effects--Replication.do") that are used in the R script to produce Figures S.11-S.13.

* "Negative_Hazard_1.dta", "Positive_Hazard_1.dta", "NM1_Hazard_1.dta", and "NM2_Hazard_1.dta"
	--Stata do files containing the 1000 estimates from the MC experiments for the main scenario (Figures S.18-S.21)

* "NwP--APD Summary.dta" and "PwN--APD Summary.dta"
	--Stata do files containing the average predictive differences for the non-proportional hazards simulations (Figures S.23-S.24)

* "ROC.dta" and "Separation Plot.dta"
	--Stata do files to show model fit of Clare (2010)

* "Variability.dta"
	--Stata do file that shows how the location along the CDF influences the average and variability of substantive effects.

* "rep.dta" and "Predicted Probabilities--Ideological Distance.dta" 
	--Stata do files that show the effects of ideological distance on conflict initiation (Clare 2010)







